Why So Many Economists Are Disillusioned With the 'Gujarat Model'

Gujarat Assembly Elections 2017: PM Modi begins his campaign today from Morbi (File)Ahmedabad: Prime Minister Narendra Modi will address four rallies in poll-bound Gujarat today where assembly elections will be held on December 9 and 14.The Prime Minister begins his campaign today from Morbi. He will then address a rally in Prachi which is near Somnath. PM Modi will then head to Palitana in Bhavnagar and also address a rally at Navsari in south Gujarat.The polling for the two-phase elections in the state having total 182 assembly seats will take place on December 9 and 14 and votes will be counted on December 18.While 89 seats of Saurashtra and South Gujarat region will go to polls in the first phase the election in the remaining 93 constituencies in central and northern regions will be held in the second phase.Here are the live updates of PM Narendra Modi s visit to Gujarat:Nov 29 201710:22 (IST) While PM Modi is back to campaigning in the state where he was in power for about 12 years after a day s break due to Global Entrepreneurship Summit 2017 in Hyderabad Rahul Gandhi also visited Gujarat last week to meet locals. Congress is trying hard to strike a chord with voters in the state where BJP has ruled for nearly two decades. Nov 29 201710:18 (IST) PM Modi s public meetings today coincide with Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi s rallies in the poll-bound state. Mr Gandhi will kick off his two-day tour to PM Modi s home state with a visit to Somnath temple. He will visit Gir Somnath Amreli and Bhavnagar districts. Nov 29 201708:16 (IST) PM Narendra Modi s first rally in Morbi was expected to begin at 9 am.No more content Muslims of Gujarat are completely missing from the ongoing electoral discourse despite being almost the every tenth person in the state and featuring prominently albeit as the villanised other in most recent polls. This absence or exclusion is not just in terms of a minuscule number of candidates from the community. No issue specifically concerning Muslims is being raised in any election speech or publicity material. Social segregation has become more evident for instance no one is even apologetic about their discomfort at having to take a seat adjacent to a Muslim in a cinema hall. Muslim localities in cities and towns are not on the must-visit list of any party. They account for 5.9% of the rural population compared to 14.75% in urban Gujarat. As against urban Gujarat social and economic alienation of Muslims is comparatively less evident in rural areas. While the declining number of Muslim candidates has been a trend of recent years issues affecting them are not being raised even by Congress. Congress has put up just six Muslim candidates BJP none again while back in 1980 it nominated 17. Since then the number declined but from 1998 it never entered double-digits. Ahmed Patel was the last Muslim member of Lok Sabha from the state in 1984 and since his election to Rajya Sabha no Muslim candidate has been put up in elections for the Lower House. With Rahul Gandhi now staying away from mosques and dargahs the party has firmly buried its politics of tokenism. This points to the success of the Sangh Parivar s strategy. If Congress considers wooing Muslims constituting 9.67% of the population it runs the risk of losing the support of Hindus. Despite Congress no longer chanting the M word interactions with Muslims reveal that an overwhelming majority of them are likely to vote for Congress candidates. Mention of Muslims invariably evokes images of 2002. Instead of being a monolith they are a diverse lot with 87 sub-communities and spread across the state. Although Bharuch and Kutch are the only districts with Muslim population of more than 20% Jamnagar Ahmedabad Junagadh Anand Surat Kheda and Patan have more than 10% Muslims. Their say in elections has however gone down post-delimitation because older constituencies with proportionally higher Muslims were divided into different seats. Analysis of electoral data demonstrates they don t only vote for Muslim candidates. A CSDS survey in 2012 estimated BJP receiving 20% Muslim votes mainly from the middle class. Along with other social groups whose continued support for BJP is being deliberated backing of this group is not certain. Of the agitations since 2015 by Patidars OBCs and Dalits Muslims empathise more with the last group. Jignesh Mevani s choice of constituency is motivated by the 25% Muslim presence in Vadgam taluka. Muslim activists prefer to maintain low profile for fear as one of them stated of coming into the notice of intelligence agencies. Most fear talking to anyone outside their community or peer groups. The fear of a stranger is all-pervading among Muslims. This is the reason why non-sectarian and issue-based protests cannot be organised in Muslim localities as any form of activism can easily be portrayed as an anti-national activity. Compared to previous polls post-2002 Muslims are relatively more circumspect. Probably they consider it prudent to quietly join those critical of BJP and let their fingers do the talking. Battling disgruntled ticket aspirants notes of discords from within and some last minute defectors the ruling BJP and the Congress finally released their final list of candidates on Monday the last day of filing nominations for the second phase of Gujarat polls.Congress BJP drop out nine sitting MLAsWhile the Congress has dropped four of its sitting MLAs the BJP left out five of its sitting MLAs with former chief minister Anandiben Patel among them. Anandiben the legislator from Ghatlodia seat of Ahmedabad city and also a minister in the outgoing Cabinet had earlier announced that she would not contest the polls this year.Apart from Anandiben the BJP has dropped minister Rohit Patel from Anand seat. The other MLAs who have not been given tickets are Nagarji Thakor RM Patel and Vinchhia Bhuria PTI reported.In Congress the sitting MLAs who have not been given tickets are Dharshi Khanpura Hira Patel Joitabhai Patel and Natvarsinh Thakor. For Mahudha seat held by Natvarsinh Thakor since long the party has chosen his son Indrajitsinh Thakor.Congress and BJP have both dropped few sitting MLAs and mostly played it safe. However this election has seen a marked change in Congress strategy which has refrained from reaching out to Muslims explicitly. ReutersCongress backs Dalit leader Jignesh MevaniThe main Opposition Congress while releasing its final list of 14 candidates left two seats for allies and backed Dalit leader Jignesh Mevani who is contesting as an Independent. The party did not field its nominee in Vadgam seat of Banaskantha a seat reserved for Scheduled Caste candidates in support of Mevani who led the Dalit stir against the BJP government in Gujarat.This election community over religionIt is no coincidence that nobody is talking about the Muslim vote bank this election season. The BJP is never known to explicitly woo the minority community; the Muslim voter has looked at the Congress as its only support. However the Congress this season adapted a different strategy prioritising winnability over anything else.And caste-based movements across Gujarat in the recent past the Dalit protests after the Una flogging incident and the Patidar agitation have sent the Muslims to the sidelines. And poll math only warrants a change in strategy.Muslim leaders in the Congress too are aware of the change in strategy as they cautiously defend the choice. According to The Indian Express Congress Muslim leaders said that it is part of its electoral strategy to avoid being projected as overtly pro-Muslim. This is being seen as a preventive move lest BJP tries to exploit such an image to mobilise the Hindu vote.A Firstpost report also suggested that the insecurity amid Muslims is on the rise. According to India Today Gujarat has at least 20 constituencies which have a sizeable Muslim population which can influence the electoral outcomes.The BJP has not given a ticket to any Muslim while the Congress has fielded six candidates from the community.Muslims account for 9.6 percent of the state s population as per 2011 Census data however they have a sizeable population in at least 66 assembly constituencies with the Muslim population varying from 10 percent to over 60 percent as per The Times of India report which extrapolated the Census data.Congress has fielded OBC leader Alpesh Zala (Thakor) popularly known as Alpesh Thakor in Radhanpur constituency. Radhanpur is a bastion of the Thakor community and is currently held by the BJP. Thakor recently joined the Congress in the presence of party vice-president Rahul Gandhi.The Congress has been wooing community leaders like Hardik Patel of the Patidar quota agitation Mevani and Thakor to dislodge the BJP which has been in power in the state for over two decades.Payoff time for Chotubhai VasavaThe Congress has not fielded any of its candidates for five seats including four reserved for Scheduled Tribes (STs) under the seat-sharing agreement with its ally Bharatiya Tribal Party headed by former JD(U) MLA Chhotubhai Vasava. Vasava was the man who had pulled out Congress Rajya Sabha MP Ahmed Patel from the jaws of defeat as the ruling BJP threw all its might ensure Ahmed s loss.Sources close to him had suggested that Vasava was flexing muscles to have a larger share of the cake as a payoff for ensuring Ahmed s win. He had actually asked for 19 seats and was adamant on getting at least 15 seats. Vasava s party is contesting five seats in the two-phase polls.For the first phase the Congress has fielded its candidates for 86 out of the 89 seats leaving out Jhaghadia Dediapada and Mangrol seats all reserved for Scheduled Tribe for Vasava s party.For the second phase the Congress gave two constituenices Morvahadaf (ST) of Panchmahal and Waghodia seat of Vadodara to Vasava s party. Both are currently held by the BJP.The 89 seats of Saurashtra and South Gujarat region are going to polls in the first phase while the remaining 93 seats in central and northern region will figure in the second phase. The polling for the 182-member Assembly will take place on 9 and 14 December and the votes will be counted on 18 December.Former Gujarat Congress president Siddharth Patel has been nominated for Dabhoi seat of Vadodara district while senior high court lawyer and party leader Babu Mangukia who had fought Hardik s sedition case initially has been chosen for the Thakkar Nagar seat in Ahmedabad city.BJP rewards defectors with ticketsThe ruling BJP has given tickets to Tejashariben Patel the former Congress MLA who joined the saffron party earlier this year and Kanu Makvana the son of former Congress MLA Karamshi Makvana who had crossed over to the BJP during the Rajya Sabha elections. The BJP has also made space for another Congress defector Amitbhai Chaudhary who had defeated a BJP candidate from Mansa constituency in the previous Assembly election according to Hindustan Times.Other Congress defectors who have found place on BJP candidate list include Raghavji Patel Dharmendrasinh Jadeja CK Raolji Mansinh Chauhan and Ramsinh Parmar.In its sixth and final list the party has given tickets to 12 sitting MLAs.The party has set to rest speculations and renominated Chief Minister Vijay Rupani from Rajkot (West) his deputy Nitin Patel from Mehsana and state party chief Jitu Vaghani from Bhavnagar (West).The BJP has fielded Bhupendra Patel from Ghatlodia represented by Anandiben while senior leader Kaushik Patel has been given the ticket from Naranpura which was earlier represented by party president Amit Shah. Shah had resigned as MLA after his election to the Rajya Sabha. Former minister and BJP spokesperson Jaynarayan Vyas will be contesting from Siddhpur from where he had lost in the 2012 polls and the party has fielded Gujarati film actor Hiteshbhai Kanodiya son of former BJP MLA Naresh Kanodiya from Ider constituency in Sabarkantha district. Kanodiya too had lost the previous elections from Kadi constituency.With inputs from agenciesClick here for detailed coverage of Gujarat Assembly Election 2017 GANDHINAGAR: Gujarat s youth trio Hardik Patel Alpesh Thakor and Jignesh Mevani who shot to fame by burnishing their apolitical credentials have jumped on the political bandwagon at the first possible opportunity upsetting the apple cart. The reasons why they discarded their apolitical moorings may be varied but it may not be advantageous to Congress which had gained political capital by bagging the support of the Young Turks. Alpesh has been fielded by Congress from Radhanpur while Jignesh has filed his nomination as an independent from Vadgam with tacit Congress backing. Before announcing his support for Congress Hardik who can t contest because he is underage ensured that his supporters are fielded by the party. But the buck stops there. The transferable votes that either Hardik or Alpesh commanded are now being chipped away by BJP as both had initially projected themselves as leaders who stood for their community sans personal agenda. However with both joining the fray it has become easier for the ruling party to discredit them. Moreover aggressive members of PAAS have arm-twisted Congress to accede to their demands of changing candidates in several seats a fact which has not gone down well with Congress workers. Congress over-indulgence of PAAS has led to strong disaffection among some Congress workers who are in no mood to work for the Patidar candidates. Reliable sources from Surat told ET that while Patidar youths have put up a great show for PAAS favoured candidates much to the chagrin of Congress workers the ripple effect of this exercise has demoralised the Congress grassroots workers who are turning complacent leaving the electioneering exercise to PAAS. Jignesh Mevani on his part has seldom enjoyed mass support like Hardik and Alpesh. But he has hogged the limelight because of his communication skills. With less than 7% of Dalits scattered across the state he had a long way to cover before emerging as a Dalit leader from Gujarat. However with little or no transferable votes to his advantage his filing of nomination from Vadgam has only angered Congress workers who view him as an outsider to the constituency. This works in favour of BJP as Congress has not fielded any candidate against Mewani. Also Congress grand induction of Alpesh Thakor has revived the memories of KHAM (Kshatriya Harijan Adivasi Muslim) formulation of 1980s by Madhavsinh Solanki the father of incumbent Gujarat Congress president Bharatsinh Solanki. The KHAM formulation had won Congress its biggest ever electoral win with 149 seats in 1985. But it also led to severe alienation of Patidars and other general category voters keeping the party out of power in the state since then. NEW DELHI: Deputy chief minister Manish Sisodia alleged on Tuesday that the Rs 30.67-crore income-tax notice sent to Aam Aadmi Party was in reaction to chief minister Arvind Kejriwal s call to the people of Gujarat to defeat BJP in the assembly polls. With bundles of documents containing details of the donations on the table Sisodia claimed at a press conference that even a ten rupee donation has been accounted for. AAP is funded by honest and hardworking people s contributions said Sisodia. Kejriwal who had refrained from making direct attacks on Prime Minister Narendra Modi after AAP fared far below expectations in Punjab and Goa has indirectly attacked the PM with his comments on the long-term impact of demonetisation and the after-effects of GST. Recently he observed that due to the growing discontent in the country the 2019 general elections will be a fight between Modi and the people of India and the people will defeat Modi. The I-T department has assessed AAP s income for financial year 2014-15 (assessment year 2015-16) at Rs 68.44 crore which includes receipts from donations and other income. The I-T department has said that AAP had not recorded donations of Rs 13 crore in its audited books. A party official however claimed that the total donations in 2014-15 was only Rs 54.14 crore and all the donations have been recorded. About Rs 37 crore of the Rs 54.14 crore donations were made by people who contributed more than Rs 20 000. The total funds received by the party since 2012 is Rs 130 crore said a party official. The motive behind the I-T notice is to crush AAP and it is part of a conspiracy said Sisodia. The donations we have received are from the common man and are not cuts for giving contracts or (for) middlemen. BJP thinks that a strong AAP will be a threat to it he said. Sisodia alleged that 70 to 80 per cent of the donations of Congress and BJP come from unknown sources. The donations of no other party are as transparent as AAP s...There is a nexus between Congress and BJP. The laws were changed when they were found wrongfully receiving foreign donations he alleged. About the alleged discrepancies in the details of donations submitted to the Election Commission and I-T department and what has been put on its website Sisodia said: There can be errors in calculations. There are legal provisions to correct such errors but that does not mean that all the donations will be declared illegal. In the I-T notice AAP was blamed for not filing replies and clarifications in an attempt to derail the investigation despite being given 34 opportunities to do so but the party has claimed it has filed replies and made representations to the I-T department at every opportunity. Our representatives made representations. The records can be checked said Sisodia. NEW DELHI: About 32 000 personnel of the central armed forces such as the CRPF and the BSF along with nearly 60 000 from the state police are likely to be deployed for the upcoming Gujarat Assembly elections officials said today. Around 320 companies of central armed police forces are being made available to the Election Commission for deployment in election duties in Gujarat. The security personnel will reach Gujarat in batches and all will be deployed as per the recommendations of the poll panel a home ministry official said on condition of anonymity. A company of central armed police comprises 100 personnel. In addition to the central police personnel nearly 60 000 state police personnel are also expected to be deployed in Gujarat. Elections to the 182-member Gujarat Assembly will be held on December 9 and 14. New Delhi: Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi will be back in battlefield Gujarat today to power the electoral campaign of their respective parties in the bitterly-fought Assembly polls.PM Modi who launched a campaign blitzkrieg on Monday addressing four election rallies in different parts of Saurashtra and south Gujarat will hold four more today after a day s break during which he inaugurated the Global Entrepreneurship Summit and the Hyderabad Metro in the Telangana capital.PM Modi will address rallies in Morbi and Prachi villages near Somnath Palitana in Bhavnagar and at Navsari in south Gujarat today.Rahul Gandhi will also be in Gujarat on a two-day campaign tour. He will kick off the current trip with a visit to the famous Somnath temple. He has been repeatedly ridiculed by the BJP for visiting a string of temples in the state during the election campaign.The Congress vice president will visit Gir Somnath Amreli and Bhavnagar districts where he will interact with people and hold public meetings party sources said.Gujarat goes to polls in two phases on December 9 and 14 while votes will be counted on December 18.The Congress is seeking to dislodge the BJP from power in the state which the BJP has ruled for close to two decades now. JASDAN: PM Modi used his oratorical skills to connect with voters of his home state at an election rally in Rajkot s Jasdan on Monday. He reached out to Koli voters by underlining that the President belonged to their caste painted the Congress as opposed to Patidars and claimed the main opposition party never had the welfare of Gujarat at heart. Jasdan has sizeable Koli and Patidar voters. Speaking in Gujarati to a gathering of around 17 000 from six assembly seats of the region Modi had the crowd chanting his name often during his speech that lasted over an hour. Jasdan has voted for Congress except in three elections. Modi told the crowd that this was the reason why the rest of Gujarat progressed while the area lagged behind although the BJP government did not discriminate. Without naming Ram Nath Kovind Modi said while people from Gujarat could claim they could call up the PM now people from the Koli Samaj can directly dial the President. I feel such a sense of pride that the President of India is from the Koli Samaj. People in this democracy gave us the mandate that we could make their man the Rashtrapati. The Congress candidate is from the Koli community. Modi claimed the main opposition tried to dislodge a Patel who occupied the chief minister s seat in Gujarat always. He said Gujarat had four Patel chief ministers and each time the Congress worked to get them removed. Modi alleged that even in the case of Anandiben Patel Congress created problems that led to her removal. Modi alleged Congress treated Sardar Patel and Morarji Desai unfairly. The people of Gujarat have not accepted you and will never accept you Modi said adding that Congress was hurt that a chaiwala had become the PM. This was beyond their imagination Why such hatred for a tea-seller? Modi can sell tea but will never sell the country like you have done. I am a son of the soil. PM Modi took digs at Congress vicepresident Rahul Gandhi and said one who did not know what a sapling of gram looked like was talking about agriculture. Farmers of Gujarat are wise and not growing potato. Else they would have believed him about potato turning into gold.